- 10-year Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts 11,500 deliveries from 2009 to 2018, representing market-wide revenues of $256 billion US
- 20-year Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast from 2009 to 2028 predicts 12,400 deliveries in 20- to 149-seat market, worth approximately $589 billion US
Today, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets.
“The financial turbulence being felt around the globe has placed a significant focus on the challenges facing the aviation industry, particularly within the business jet sector. The sharp downturn in global economies in late 2008 precipitated a sharp decline in demand that affected aircraft manufacturers, suppliers and operators. With demand for air travel closely linked to economic growth, we anticipate continued volatility in the aerospace industry in the near term. However, despite the current recession, the market fundamentals are strong in the long term. As the world begins to emerge from this economic crisis, demand should gradually return and future prospects remain solid,” said Mairead Lavery, Vice-President, Strategy and Business Development, Bombardier Aerospace.
Business Aircraft Market Forecast
In the 10-year period from 2009 to 2018, the Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that business jet manufacturers will deliver a total of 11,500 aircraft* with revenues of approximately $256 billion US** for the industry.
While in the short term the industry faces such important challenges as high pre-owned inventories, negative public perceptions and a difficult economic climate, Bombardier remains confident that there is a strong potential for the business aircraft industry over the next 10 years. The anticipated return of global economic growth is expected to result in a strong recovery in the demand for business jets.
The worldwide business jet fleet included approximately 13,600 aircraft at the end of 2008. It is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.8 per cent over the forecast period to some 23,800 units after aircraft retirements.
The fundamentals of the business jet industry are solid and are expected to remain positive in the long term. Consequently, Bombardier will maintain its focus on strengthening its market leadership position by continuing to invest in its current and future products. With continued growth expected in the medium to long term, the market needs new, innovative aircraft that provide operators with optimized solutions designed to meet their business objectives. An example of Bombardier’s ability to constantly pursue innovation and technical advancement is the all new, composite Learjet 85 business jet, scheduled to enter into service in 2013.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast has demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft at 12,400 new aircraft deliveries in the 20-year period from 2009 to 2028. Despite a slight adjustment in demand from last year’s forecast, the long term fundamentals within the industry remain positive. The forecasted demand is valued at approximately $589 billion US**.
Continued downward yield pressure, projected fuel price increases and environmental concerns will reinforce operators’ requirement for modern aircraft with low operating costs. As a result, we anticipate a trend towards the right-sizing of more fuel-efficient aircraft types and a significant number of retirements. Sixty per cent, or 6,900 units, of the current 20- to 149-seat market are expected to be retired over the period of the forecast.
The forecast reflects the shift in demand to the upper end of regional and lower end of the mainline market:
- In the 20- to 59-seat aircraft segment: the forecast predicts deliveries of 300 aircraft;
- In the 60- to 99-seat aircraft segment: deliveries are predicted to reach 5,800 aircraft;
- In the 100- to 149-seat aircraft segment: the forecast predicts deliveries for 6,300 aircraft.
A world leader in the design and production of aircraft with 149 seats and less, Bombardier’s commercial aircraft portfolio of products is optimized for the market segments they serve. In service in 12 out of the world’s 20 largest airlines, their subsidiaries or affiliated companies†, Bombardier’s comprehensive portfolio of regional jets and turboprop aircraft include the CRJ700/CRJ900/CRJ1000 NextGen regional jets and Q400 NextGen turboprops. These aircraft meet a wide spectrum of customers needs and are the backbone of many of the world’s airlines.
In March 2009, Bombardier announced firm purchase agreements from two customers for its CSeries aircraft program which was launched in July 2008. Set to redefine the 100- to 149- seat category, this new, game-changing family of commercial aircraft will offer operational flexibility, lower operating costs and passenger comfort to mainline carriers, and will be the most environmentally sensitive family of aircraft in its market segmentâ.
Creating a sustainable future for aviation
The aviation industry has also focused its attention on the important issue of creating sustainable transportation solutions. For its part, Bombardier is being proactive to address environmental concerns. Bombardier’s priority is to design the most fuel-efficient aircraft with the lowest noise and emissions in their category, reducing their environmental footprint and meeting its customers’ requirements. In addition, as part of its corporate social responsibility initiatives, Bombardier Aerospace was the first original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to offer business aircraft customers a fully managed carbon-offset program.
A world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from commercial aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services, Bombardier Inc. is a global corporation headquartered in Canada. Its revenues for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2009, were $19.7 billion US, and its shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD). Bombardier is listed as an index component to the Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America indexes. News and information are available at www.bombardier.com.
Bombardier, Learjet 85, CRJ700, CRJ900, CRJ1000, Q400, NextGen and CSeries are either registered or unregistered trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
Note to Editors
Bombardier’s market forecast presentation will be available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site at: www.bombardier.com
Please visit www.parisairshow.bombardier.com
* Excluding Very Light jets.
** Values are based on current aircraft list prices in US dollars.
† Source: Air Transport World publication dated January 2009.
âThe CSeries aircraft is in the design phase. All data and specifications are estimates, subject to change in family strategy, branding, capacity, performance during the course of the design, manufacture and certification process. Performance has been estimated based on a 500-nm North American operating environment.
This press release includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe” or “continue” or the negatives of these terms or variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require Bombardier Inc. (the “Corporation”) to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause the Corporation’s actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While the Corporation considers its assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on current information available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this press release, please refer to the respective Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) sections of the Corporation’s aerospace segment and the Corporation’s transportation segment in the Corporation’s annual report for fiscal year 2009.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with the Corporation’s business environment (such as the financial condition of the airline industry), operational risks (such as risks associated with doing business with partners, risks involved in developing new products and services, product performance warranty, casualty claim losses, risks from regulatory and legal proceedings, environmental risks, risks relating to the Corporation’s dependence on certain key customers and key suppliers, human resource risks and risks resulting from fixed-term commitments), financing risks (such as risks resulting from reliance on government support, risks relating to financing support provided on behalf of certain customers, risks relating to liquidity and access to capital markets, risks relating to the terms of certain restrictive debt covenants) and market risks (including foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rate and commodity pricing risk). For more details, see the Risks and Uncertainties section in Other of the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for fiscal year 2009. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect the Corporation’s expectations as at the date of this press release and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, the Corporation expressly disclaims any intention, and assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.